The risk of nuclear war

How risky are nuclear weapons?
Amazingly, no one seems to know.

My name is Martin Hellman and I'm a professor at Stanford University. When I started this project, I looked for studies which estimated that risk. I also asked prominent authorities on nuclear weapons, national security, and risk analysis if they knew of any such studies. I found nothing.

Next I did a preliminary analysis of the risk we face and found that it was equivalent to having your home surrounded by thousands of nuclear power plants. So I published a paper which urgently calls for more detailed studies to either confirm or correct that startling conclusion.

Informed, subjective estimates support the need for in-depth studies. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry puts the odds of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next ten years at 50-50. Indiana Republican Senator Richard Lugar's survey of 85 national security experts reached a similarly alarming conclusion.

Check out the site, it's worth reviewing.

I don't know how you measure the risk of nuclear war given that the U.S. is the only nation to ever employ these weapons but the thinking will open your mind.